This scenario occurs when civilizations recognize that

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In the 1950s, famed physicist Enrico Fermi posed the question that encapsulated one of the toughest questions in the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI): the heck is everybody? What he meant was, given the age of the Universe (13.8 billion years), canada goose clearance the sheer number of galaxies (between 1 and 2 trillion), and the overall number of planets, why has humanity still not found evidence of extra terrestrial intelligence?

canada goose black friday sale This question, which has come to buy canada goose jacket be known as the Paradox is something scientists continue to ponder. In a new study, a team from the University of Rochester considered that perhaps Climate Change is the reason. the industrial revolution, population growth, the growth of urban centers cheap Canada Goose and reliance on fossil fuels humans have had a significant impact on the planet. In fact, many geologists refer to the current era as the because humanity has become the single greatest factor affecting planetary evolution. canada goose buy canada goose jacket cheap black friday sale

In the future, populations are expected to grow even further, reaching about 10 billion by mid century and over 11 billion by 2100. In that time, the number of people who live within urban centers will also increase dramatically, increasing from 54% to 66% by mid century. As such, the quesiton of how billions of people can live sustainably has become an increasingly important one.

Prof. As he explained in a University of Rochester press release:

Canada Goose Parka “Astrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a planetary context. That includes ‘exo civilizations’ or what we usually call aliens. In this sense, the fate of a civilization comes down to how they use their planet resources. Canada Goose Parka

canadian goose jacket In order to illustrate this process Frank and his collaborators developed a mathematical model that considers civilizations and planets as a whole. As Prof. Frank explained: canadian goose jacket

buy canada goose jacket “The point is to recognize that driving climate change may be something generic. The laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet. Seeing climate change in this cosmic context may give us better insight into what’s happening to us now and how to deal with it.” buy canada goose jacket

The model was also based on case studies of extinct civilizations, which included the famous example of what became of the inhabitants of Rapa Nui (aka. Easter Island). According to archaeological studies, the people of the South Pacific began colonizing this island between 400 and 700 CE and its population peaked at Canada Goose sale 10,000 sometime between 1200 and 1500 CE.

Professor Adam Frank, who led the study in how civilization planet systems evolve. Credit: University of Rochester photo / J. Adam Fenster

canada goose uk outlet By the 18th century, however, the inhabitants had depleted their resources and the population declined to just 2000. Canada Goose Outlet This example raises the important concept known as capacity which is the maximum number of species an environment can support. As Frank explained, Climate Change is essentially how the Earth canada goose deals responds to the expansion of our civilization: canada goose uk outlet

cheap canada goose uk “If you go canada goose store through really strong climate change, then your carrying canada goose black friday sale capacity may drop, because, for example, large scale agriculture might be strongly disrupted. Imagine if climate change caused rain to stop falling in the Midwest. We wouldn’t be able to grow food, and our population would diminish.” cheap canada goose uk

canada goose factory sale Using their mathematical model, the team identified four potential scenarios that might occur on a planet. These include the Die Off scenario, the Sustainability scenario, the Collapse Without Resource Change scenario, and the Collapse With Resource Change scenario. In the Die Off scenario, the population and the planet state (for example, average temperatures) rise very quickly. canada goosefactory sale

This would eventually lead to a population peak and then a rapid decline as changing planetary conditions make Canada Goose Jackets it harder for the majority of the population to survive. Eventually, a steady population level would be achieved, but it would only be a fraction of what the peak population was. oil, coal, clear cutting) to sustainable ones (renewable energy).

Four scenarios for the fate of canada goose clearance sale civilizations and their planets, based on mathematical models developed by Adam Frank and his collaborators. Credit: University of Rochester illustration / Michael Osadciw

Canada Goose Outlet In the Sustainability scenario, the population and planetary conditions both rise, but eventually come to together with steady values, thus avoiding anycatastrophic effects. This scenario occurs when civilizations recognize that environmental changes threaten their existence and successfully make the transition from high impact resources to sustainable ones. Canada Goose Outlet

canada goose store The final two scenarios Collapse Without canadian goose jacket Resource Change and Collapse With Resource Change differ in one key respect. In the former, the population and temperature both rise rapidly until the population reaches a peak and begins to drop rapidly though it is not clear if the species itself survives. In the latter, the population and temperature rise rapidly, but the populations recognizes the danger and makes the transition. Unfortunately, the change comes too late and the population collapses anyway. canada goose store

Canada Goose sale At present, scientists cannot say with any confidence which of these fates will be the one Canada Goose Parka humanity faces. Perhaps we will make the transition before it is too late, perhaps not. But in the meantime, Frank and his colleagues hope to use more detailed models to predict how planets will respond to civilizations and the different ways they consume energy and resources in order to grow. Canada Goose sale

From this, scientists may be able to refine their predictions of what awaits us in this century and the next. It is during this time that crucial changes will be taking place, which include the aforementioned population growth, and canada goose the steady rise in temperatures. For instance, based on two scenarios that measured CO2 increases by the year 2100, NASA indicated that global temperatures could rise by either 2.5 C (4.5 F) or 4.4 C (8 F).

canada goose clearance In the former scenario, where CO2 levels reached 550 ppm by 2100, the changes would be sustainable. But in the latter scenario, where CO2 levels reached 800 ppm, the changes would cause widespread disruption to systems that billions of humans depends uponfor their livelihood and survival. Worse than that, life would become untenable in certain areas of the world, leading to massive displacement and humanitarian crises. canada goose clearance

In addition to offering a possible resolution for the Fermi Paradox, this study offers some helpful advice for human beings. By thinking of civilizations and planets as a whole be they Earth or exoplanets researchers will be able to better predict what changes will be necessary for human civilization to survive. As Frank warned, it is absolutely essential that humanity mobilize now to ensure that the worst case scenario does not occur here on Earth:

canada goose coats “If you change the earth’s climate enough, you might not be able to change it back. Even if you backed off and started to use solar or other less impactful resources, it could be too late, because the planet has already been changing. These models show we can’t just think about a population evolving on its own. Wehave to think about our planets and civilizations co evolving.” canada goose coats

Canada canada goose coats on sale Goose online And be sure to enjoy this video that addresses Prof. Frank and his team research, courtesy of the University of Rochester:Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe. But here on Earth, it rather rare. That unfortunate, because in our warming world, its status as an emissions free fuel makes it a coveted chemical. If German researchers are successful, their Synlight project will help make renewable hydrogen fuel a reality. Canada Goose online

buy canada goose jacket cheap Dubbed the Sun the Synlight uses concentrated light to power Thermochemical Water Splitting (TWS.) Every school child knows you can produce hydrogen by electrolysis running an electric current through water. But Canada Goose online that takes an enormous amount of electricity. TWS might be a better way of getting hydrogen out of water, but it takes an enormous amount of energy too, and that what the German research is about. buy canada goose jacket cheap

When combusted with pure oxygen inside a fuel cell for example hydrogen only waste product is water. No greenhouse gases or particulates are produced. But if we want to use it to power our cars, buses, trucks, and even airplanes, we need enormous amounts of it. And we need to produce it cost effectively.

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