ANZ’s Felicity Emmett said outside the apparent strength in

admin on 27 de Março de 2014

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iphone 6 plus case Shell’s imported Prelude floating LNG facility is the largest floating object ever built and added to the value of construction done but won’t be included in GDP figures. (Supplied: Shell) economic growth jumps, but is it sustainable?Construction jumps but units drag on building approvalsThe value of construction work surged almost 16 per cent in the September quarter thanks to the arrival of two large floating LNG facilities from offshore.Key points:A 33pc rise large scale engineering work in Q3 more than offset declines in residential and non residential buildingVictoria and NSW continue long streak of construction growth, while WA has shrunk every quarter for more than two yearsThe value boom from imported LNG facilities will not boost GDPIn seasonally adjusted terms, the value of total construction for the quarter was $62.9 billion up 30 per cent over the year.The surprise increase market consensus was for a 3 per cent fall over the quarter was entirely due to large scale engineering work, such as the arrival of LNG facilities.The 33 per cent increase in engineering work more than offset a disappointing decline ( 0.4 per cent) in building work.Residential building was down 0.3 per cent over the quarter and 1.7 per cent over the year, while non residential building was down 0.6 per cent in the three months to September, but up almost 8 per cent over the year.While construction work isone of the important partial measures in the make up of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the arrival of LNG platforms such as the Ichthys and Prelude facilities from offshore in recent months have made them an unreliable indicator recently. Another floating plant was largely behind the June quarter’s surprise 9 per cent jump.Given the LNG platforms are imported, they have no net impact on GDP, while the actual value of the facilities are not released due to commercial sensitivities.Victoria and NSW boom continues, WA in retreatHowever, the data points to ongoing strength in the most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.In trend terms, construction work in Victoria has risen for the last 13 quarters , while NSW has experienced 11 straight quarters of growth.On the other side of the ledger, construction work in Western has fallen for the past nine quarters as the resources boom continues to cool.However, the market looked through the headline figure with the n dollar sliding soon after its release.Westpac’s senior currency strategist, Sean Callow said the dollar’s reversal fall made sense given the 15.7 per cent increase was more like 1 per cent once the impact of imported LNG facilities were removed.ANZ’s Felicity Emmett said outside the apparent strength in engineering activity, other details were soft, with housing construction particularly disappointing.”We continue to expect residential activity to flat line at a relatively elevated level given the amount of work in the pipeline , before gradually declining next year,” Ms Emmett said.While Ms Emmett said non residential building was also slightly weaker than expected, there were some promising signs.”Given strong growth in approvals, we expect non residential building activity to rise solidly over the next couple of years and become a key driver of the non mining business investment recovery.”Government spending on construction work also continued to rise (+3.3 per cent) and was largely consistent with the solid infrastructure pipeline, Ms Emmett noted iphone 6 plus case.

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